Second, asset prices should lead the business cycle. Are these two features borne out by the ... real equity price changes are one of the most useful predictors of recession starts. Chart 2 portrays ...

It officially declared the last pandemic-driven recession, which lasted from March to April 2020, in July 2021. The problem that the institution's business-dating-cycle program was created to ...

The US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. The business-cycle expert and ...