Hurricane models are showing increasingly high chances that a tropical cyclone could form somewhere in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico as early as next week, and forecasters are encouraging Gulf Coast residents to stay vigilant through the remainder of the 2024 season.

A trough, or elongated area of low pressure, is expected to dig southward across the Midwest and/or Northeast late next week. If this trough is deeper and dips farther south, it will likely grab on to the tropical cyclone and pull to the northeast, possibly toward Florida. However, if the trough is shallower, a more western track appears likelier.

Next week from Sept. 25 - 29th, forecast models are agreeing and giving a higher confidence that a tropical system could be in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s too early to say if we’ll have any impacts from this potential system because it hasn’t formed yet, but it’s something that we are monitoring closely.