There’s a significantly elevated chance that a U.S. recession will begin within the next 12 months. The odds are roughly one ...

Writing TKer is a process. I first catch up on news and research, and I see what topics are being debated. Then I settle on an angle. Then I draft the newsletter. Then I edit. Then I have an editor ...

It begins when the recession ends and economic activity begins to improve. However, there is controversy over these strict definitions of expansion and recession in the business cycle.

Phases of a Business Cycle There are four phases to a business cycle: peak, contraction or recession, trough and recovery or expansion.

Benner Cycle predicts a 2026 market peak; retail investors rally behind it amid economic instability and rising recession fears.

The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, which determines when recessions begin and end, looks beyond GDP at things like unemployment, personal income excluding ...

A recession has to start sometime. This next chart looks at the economy in aggregate, and on a monthly rather than quarterly basis. (The Business Cycle Dating Committee dates recessions both ways.) ...

Starting its rate cut cycle would signal that the Fed is confident it beat inflation, but that hasn't happened quite yet. Why are people nervous about a recession?

5 min read Recession Indicators: The Financial Advisor’s Cheat Sheet Explore key economic signals and where markets stand today.

Economists used the business cycle to predict what’s next. It doesn’t work so well anymore. Where’s the recession? Changes like the pandemic crash and government funding programs have ...

The US economy could be slipping into an expansion rather than a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee highlighted that earnings revisions for S&P 500 companies have started to turn higher.