How economists identify recessions and stagflation 03:21. As tariff uncertainty continues to roil the stock market, some economists believe the U.S. could be headed toward a recession, a ...

The NBER defines a recession as the period of decline from peak to trough in the business cycle. Peak to Trough A recession begins when the economy has reached a peak in activity and begins a decline.

Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle, but there’s some disagreement on what constitutes a recession and what it means for you. Find out what a recession is, how one starts, how it ...

Commerce secretary says Trump's policies are "worth it" even if they lead to recession 04:20. The nation's unemployment rate did tick up last month, to 4.1% from 4%, though that is still quite low.

A recession in the early 1980s sent the unemployment rate almost to 11%, ... Officially, the arbiter of recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Certified financial planners and other wealth management executives share the steps you need to take in the event of an economic downturn ...

NBER says its other recession determinations have taken between four and 21 months. There is no fixed timing rule. The committee waits until it’s confident to make a confirmation, according to NBER.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit that tracks U.S. business cycles, defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and ...

“That’s uncomfortably high -- and it’s rising,” Zandi said. Goldman Sachs last week hiked its odds of a recession from 15% to 20%. J.P. Morgan Chase economists pegged the chances of a ...

Tightening monetary policy did not cause a recession during 2022 and 2023, and, we believe, is unlikely to cause one in 2024 and 2025. The reason is what we call the Credit Crisis Cycle.

Politics Will the tariffs lead to a recession? Here’s how to know if we’re in one. Economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their assessment of the odds the US will experience a recession ...