Second, asset prices should lead the business cycle. Are these two features borne out by the ... real equity price changes are one of the most useful predictors of recession starts. Chart 2 portrays ...

it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology. In determining the date of a peak in activity, it waits until it is confident that ...

We discuss how this theory has evolved from its roots in the early real business cycle models of the late 1970s through the turmoil of the Great Recession four decades later. We document the ...

It officially declared the last pandemic-driven recession, which lasted from March to April 2020, in July 2021. The problem that the institution's business-dating-cycle program was created to ...

The US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. The business-cycle expert and ...

These business cycles involve phases of high or even low level of economic activities. A business cycle involves periods of economic expansion, recession, trough and recovery. The duration of such ...

“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ...