High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. Check out the various indicators that predict a recession is coming soon.

The iM Business Cycle Index (BCI) was designed for a timely signal before the beginning of a recession, and is fully described in the three articles, all found here.

Economists used the business cycle to predict what’s next. It doesn’t work so well anymore. Where’s the recession? Changes like the pandemic crash and government funding programs have ...

Phases of a Business Cycle There are four phases to a business cycle: peak, contraction or recession, trough and recovery or expansion.

When running a business, understanding business cycles is essential to success. Sometimes referred to as a trade or economic cycle, a business cycle is the measured expansion and contraction of ...

Leading indicators point to an economic slowdown. Here’s how to know when it’s here and what steps you can take to shore up your finances.

A recession has to start sometime. This next chart looks at the economy in aggregate, and on a monthly rather than quarterly basis. (The Business Cycle Dating Committee dates recessions both ways.) ...

The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, which determines when recessions begin and end, looks beyond GDP at things like unemployment, personal income excluding ...

Optimistic investors are hoping for a soft landing in 2023 - with inflation decelerating while the business cycle slows but avoids outright recession.

Also, it’s often the case that the US already is in a recession by the time the Business Cycle Dating Committee officially deems it so.

The above data from Rosenberg Research shows that 11 out of the last 14 cycles of interest-rate hikes have resulted in a recession. Could this cycle see a rare soft-landing scenario that avoids a ...

"Economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023." ...